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2020 USA Olympic Team Trials Marathon Men's Preview
By Star Blackford
The 2020 Olympic Marathon Trials boast a record 776 total qualifiers and while not all will run, all that do will face one of the more challenging courses in recent years, featuring multiple turns and potential bottlenecks on the winding criterium course through downtown Atlanta. With 264 men's competitors and 512 women's competitors, the race is likely to be more tactical than fast, perhaps favoring those with experience versus raw speed. That said, the fastest runners are typically those that win races, and in spite of the large fields, we can still anticipate the Olympic Teams consisting of runners from two distinct groups: men who have run sub-2:11 at the marathon distance and women who have run sub-2:30. While it certainly wouldn't be the first time a surprise runner crept in, the team at MarathonGuide.com expects your top finishers to come from these pools.
Men's Preview
The men's field, made up of 264 qualifiers, includes eight men who have run faster than 2:11, four of whom have broken 2:10. In a race setting in which all four sub-2:10 men arrived healthy and fit, we would expect the 2020 Olympic Team to come from those four: Galen Rupp, Leonard Korir, Scott Fauble and Jared Ward. With Rupp coming off a difficult year, however, and Korir's marathon experience limited to a single flat, albeit blistering, marathon, the window is open for a dramatic move by anyone in the sub-2:11 group: Jacob Riley, Jerrell Mock, Parker Stinson and Andrew Bumbalough. As for the top ten, we could see any number of long-distance veterans (Abdi Abdirahaman, Dathan Ritzenhein, Bernard Lagat), half marathon specialists (Diego Estrada, Noah Droddy) or sub-2:13 guys (there are 28!) earn their way in.
Leader of the Pack
While all four men in the top category have run sub-2:10, Galen Rupp remains the most formidable by far. His 2:06:07 qualifying time (2018 Prague Marathon) is nearly two minutes faster than his closest competitor and the second fastest marathon time run by an American male; he is seeking to make his fourth Olympic team after winning the silver medal in the 10,000m at the 2008 London Olympic Games and the bronze medal in the marathon at the 2012 Rio Olympic Games. Were it not for a year overshadowed by recovery from surgery (Rupp had a frayed Achilles tendon and Haglund's deformity repaired following the 2018 Chicago Marathon, in which he ran 2:06:21), as well as his coach's ban from the sport, the subsequent disbanding of his training group (the Nike Oregon Project), and a late drop from the 2019 Chicago Marathon due to a calf strain, Rupp would be considered the singular favorite for the 2020 U.S. Olympic Marathon Team. In rare interviews with Runner's World and his local newspaper, Rupp recently shared details about his new coaching relationship with Northern Arizona University's Mike Smith as well as his fitness going into the Trials, emphasizing that he's making great gains, no longer in pain, and will be ready to race in Atlanta. Considering he ran 2:08 pace in pain until his drop in Chicago, Rupp remains the top contender for an Olympic berth.
The Probables
Behind Rupp are the other three men who could each be considered a lock for the team (except only two of the three can make it) - Leonard Korir, Scott Fauble and 2016 U.S. Olympic team member Jared Ward. Korir, who ran the fastest debut marathon by an American male in history (2:07:56, 2019 Amsterdam Marathon), was also a member of the 2016 U.S. Olympic Team in the 10,000m event and takes significant track speed into the Trials - he used that speed to win the internationally competitive Houston Half Marathon with a sprint finish in 2017. Provided Korir's speed isn't compromised by his lack of experience at the distance - the flat Amsterdam Marathon is the only one he's run - we can expect to see him on the podium. Scott Fauble, who ran a more than three-minute PR en route to a 2:09:09 top American finish at the 2019 Boston Marathon, has run only three career marathons himself, but two of those - Boston and the 2018 NYC Marathon - were on challenging, hilly courses and pitted him against the best national and international talent, demonstrating his competence in difficult conditions against world class fields. Ward, the surprise third place finisher at the 2016 Olympic Marathon Trials, enters the 2020 event a favorite following a solid year of racing in 2018 and an exceptional year in 2019, including his own PR run of 2:09:25 at Boston, followed by his first American, sixth overall 2:10:45 finish at the NYC Marathon. Continuing to improve, he kicked off 2020 with a 1:01:36 Half Marathon PR at the Houston Half Marathon, also good for first American. Ward, who placed sixth in 2016 Rio Olympic Marathon, has a depth of experience rivaled only by Rupp. He can be counted on to run for the podium.
The Immediate Chase Pack
The fastest four qualifiers likely to be in the chase pack - Jacob Riley, Jerrel Mock, Parker Stinson and Andrew Bumbalough - represent a group that ran within seconds of each other at the 2019 Chicago Marathon; Riley and Mock finished within one second of each other (2:10:36 and 2:10:37, respectively) and Stinson and Bumbalough within three seconds of each other (2:10:53 and 2:10:56). Riley had a breakthrough run in Chicago, finishing as first American; his last marathon prior was the 2016 Olympic Marathon Trials in which he ran a 2:18:31 for 15th. Mock, a Colorado native, ran his debut at Chicago. Stinson, a more familiar name, has had a unique trajectory in the distance, shaving almost four minutes off his time at each of his marathons: 2:18:07 at the 2017 Cal International Marathon; 2:14:29 at the 2018 Chicago Marathon; and 2:10:53 at the 2019 Chicago Marathon. That trajectory is unlikely to continue at the Olympic Trials, though a perfect run on the right day could still boost him onto the team. Bumbalough, who jumped from a 2:19:52 on the much more challenging Boston course to his 2:10:56 at Chicago, ran two marathons (Tokyo and Chicago) in 2018, finishing in 2:13:58 and 2:14:04, respectively, and enters the Trials one of the two most experienced at the distance (with Stinson) in the immediate chase pack.
Also in the Chase Pack
Separated by only seconds in some cases, a large and varied pack of talented men will also be hoping for an outside shot at one of the three team berths, including Olympians Abdi Abdirahaman, Dathan Ritzenhein and Bernard Lagat; half marathon speedsters Diego Estrada and Noah Droddy, and the host of sub-2:13 guys that may have Olympic potential not yet maximized. Watching the top ten sort themselves out should be more interesting in the men's race than the women's - there are fewer "sure shots," presenting greater opportunity for a previously unknown runner to steal the show with a surprise performance.
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