|
2020 USA Olympic Team Trials Marathon Women's Preview
By Star Blackford
The women's field, consisting of 512(!) total qualifiers by MarathonGuide.com's count, boasts eleven women who have run sub-2:27 marathons since 2018 and an additional seven who have run sub-2:30 in that time. The sub-2:27 group, including Jordan Hasay, the second fastest American female marathoner in American history; Olympians Des Linden, Amy Cragg and Molly Huddle; USATF Running Circuit champions Sara Hall (2019), Emma Bates (2018) and Aliphine Tuliamuk (2016, 2017), is rounded out by Emily Sisson, following up her stunning London debut; Sally Kipyego, currently training in her native Eldoret; and rising star Kellyn Taylor.
The latter group - comprised of Trials veteran Stephanie Bruce, Nell Rojas, Lindsay Flanagan, Laura Thweatt, Samantha Palmer and Roberta Groner - includes four women who ran PR's at the Houston Half Marathon in January (Rojas, Flanagan, Thweatt and Palmer), all of whom could be outlying threats on the right day. Allie Kieffer, while she has recently returned to running and intends to compete in the Trials, battled injuries and setbacks throughout 2019.
The Favorites: Jordan Hasay & the 2016 Olympic Marathon Team
We would normally expect the fastest and most experienced runners in the field to offer the strongest performances - but several of the women in the 2020 field are at unique points in their careers, resulting in a field that is deep but complex. Jordan Hasay holds the fastest women's qualifying time by almost a full minute and began 2019 by proving herself recovered from injury with a third place showing at the Boston Marathon (2:25:20). She appeared in top form once more, but struggled in the latter half of the year when an old hamstring injury - and perhaps the emotional burden of her coach's very public ban from the sport - forced her to drop from the Chicago Marathon at mile 3, abandoning her attempt at Deena Kastor's American record (2:19:36). 2016 Olympic Marathon Team members Amy Cragg (who won the 2016 Olympic Marathon Trials and holds the second-fastest women's qualifying time) and Des Linden (who made both the 2012 and 2016 Olympic Marathon teams) have both considered ending their careers since the last Olympic cycle. While both will compete, it is unclear if they retain they retain the same fire they had four years ago; Cragg has said in recent interviews that she is simply focused on the top three and Linden plans to race both the Trials and Boston with only 51 days between, noting that the opportunity to be a factor in either race will not be there much longer. The final 2016 Olympic team member, Shalane Flanagan, qualified to run the Trials but has retired from competitive running following two knee surgeries.
The Favorites, Part II: Deep Talent, Challenging Course
The remaining women who have run faster than 2:27 are a foreboding group, most of whom are just hitting their stride. Sara Hall enters the 2020 Olympic Marathon Trials with fresh PR's in both the marathon (2:22:16, 2019 Berlin Marathon) and Half Marathon (1:08:58, 2020 Houston Half Marathon), as well as the 2019 championship in the USATF Running Circuit. While her 2:35:34 at the 2019 Boston Marathon was not her best, it was significant considering she spent part of the winter on crutches and had only a six-week buildup; her early drop from the 2019 NYC Marathon was due to a stomach virus rather than fatigue or injury. Now running better than ever - her 2:22:16 at Berlin was the fastest marathon time by an American woman in 2019 and her PR in Houston shows she continues to get stronger - Hall simply loves racing and is poised for the podium on the right day. Among those looking to challenge Hall for a coveted spot are Emily Sisson, following up on her fantastic London debut (2:23:08), the second fastest debut by an American woman and only eight seconds off Jordan Hasay's record. Sisson's speed across various distances, most notably the Half Marathon and 10K, make her a serious threat, but her lack of experience with the marathon distance - and that her single marathon was on the notably flat London course - could be an additional obstacle. Likewise, 2016 Olympian Molly Huddle - who holds the American records in both the 10,000m (30:13:17) and Half Marathon (1:07:26) distances - ran a PR 2:26:33 at the 2019 London Marathon, but noted feeling achy throughout and not having the day she hoped for. Her recent run in Houston (1:09:34) was well off her PR and American record, but that result should be balanced with a very successful track season in 2019 that included her fifth consecutive national title at the 10,000m - a race in which she bested Sisson. While she has yet to have a "breakthrough" performance in the marathon, placing no higher than 4th thus far, there's no better stage than the Trials, where a fit and healthy Huddle could do just that.
The Favorites, Part III
Not to be overlooked as contenders for the podium are Kellyn Taylor, Sally Kipyego, Emma Bates and Aliphine Tuliamuk. Taylor, who finished in 6th place at the 2016 Olympic Marathon Trials after taking the lead in the middle miles, has run five additional marathons since then, including her 2:24:29 win at Grandma's in 2018 and her second American, seventh overall finish at the 2019 NYC Marathon, a course well-suited for preparing for the rigors of racing in Atlanta. Further fueling her fire, Taylor was an alternate on the 2016 10,000m Olympic team, finishing those Trials in fourth place, and is determined to show she can make a Trials podium. Kipyego, running her first Olympic Marathon Trials as an American citizen and currently training in her native Eldoret, enters the Trials with the sixth fastest qualifying time. Bates, the 2018 USATF Running Circuit Champion who won the 2018 Cal International Marathon with a 2:28:19 debut, has run only one other marathon - her 2:25:27 PR at the 2019 Chicago Marathon, good for first American and fourth overall. Her inexperience at running the distance tactically could cost her in a field of veterans; her raw speed could yet land her on the podium. Likewise for Tuliamuk; although she may be the least likely of the sub-2:27 group to actually earn an Olympic berth, the 2016 and 2017 USATF Running Circuit Champion ran her PR (2:26:50) at the 2019 Rotterdam Marathon after a period plagued with injuries; she followed that with a strong and controlled 3rd place American finish at the NYC Marathon in 2:28:12 and is running her best and healthiest in several years.
And Still In the Hunt …
While a mixture of the women from the three groups above will conceivably make up the team, the marathon is a long and grueling race, and the conditions in Atlanta (course crowding, hills, multiple turns and potential heat) will make it even more so. Every major marathon sees unexpected drops - Hasay at Chicago, Hall at NYC - and many see surprise performances boost "top ten" competitors into much higher spots. Among those to watch in that group are Colorado's Nell Rojas, Lindsay Flanagan and Laura Thweatt; all three ran half marathon PR's at the Houston Half Marathon in January, indicating their fitness. Stephanie Bruce, who currently trains with Kellyn Taylor and Aliphine Tuliamuk as part of Hoka's NAZ Elite Team and seems to be getting faster with age, ran alongside Taylor for matching 69:13 finishes (on a short course) in the Arizona Half Marathon, proving she's fit enough to run with the top contenders. Samantha Palmer and Roberta Groner should also be considered potential top ten finishers by virtue of their sub-2:30 times, but may be more dependent on upsets at the top to see that happen.
|
