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Jun-13-2006
At 48, Kotov Still Favored to Win Comrades Marathon
by Riel Hauman
(c) Race Results Weekly, all rights reserved
Can an almost-50-year-old runner, no matter how good his pedigree, win the
"up" Comrades for the fourth consecutive time against runners young enough
to be his sons? Vladimir Kotov (BLR) is 48, but has shown he is no ordinary
runner and many experts regard him as the favourite for Friday's Comrades
ultramarathon from Durban to Pietermaritzburg.
This year's race, the 81st, will be over 87.5 km. The finish is 670 metres
higher than the start in coastal Durban; the highest point on the route is
at 870m.
Kotov first won the Comrades in 2000, setting a new record of 5:25:33 for
the up run. Although he has not been able to duplicate this kind of form in
the "down" run, he also won the next two up runs, in 5:30:59 in 2002 and
5:31:22 in 2004. In the 2001 down run he was third in 5:27:21 and in 2003,
when struggling with an injury, 22nd in 5:57:03. Last year he finished
fourth in 5:33:59.
He changed his preparation for the 2006 race in one significant way: Whereas
he has always used the 56 km Two Oceans ultramarathon over Easter as part of
his build-up, he did not do so this time. When he set the Comrades record in
2000, he also finished second in the Two Oceans, running a veteran (40+)
record of 3:13:21 that still stands.
In February Kotov won the veteran (masters) title in the South African
Marathon Championships in 2:25:22. Although still a Belorussian citizen, he
has permanent resident status in South Africa. The last few weeks he spent,
as usual, in Russia for the final stages of his preparation.
Who will be the danger men for Kotov?
Sipho Ngomane, surprise winner of last year's Comrades, reportedly is
nursing an injury and tends to over-race, which could cost him dearly on the
up run. Ngomane (24), not yet born when Kotov finished fourth in the 1980
Olympic Marathon, was third in the Two Oceans. He won the Comrades in
5:27:10 in 2005 and most experts believe he will become a force in the race
in the future, but not yet in the up run.
Andrew Kelehe, winner in 2001, is another runner who seems to be better on
the down run. His winning 5:25:51 has been beaten only by Bruce Fordyce, and
Kelehe (41) has been out of the top five on only one occasion during the
past seven years, placing second, fifth, first, ninth, fifth, fifth and
third.
Willie Mtolo, winner of the 1992 New York City Marathon and second in the
Comrades as long ago as 1989, was second and fourth in the last two up runs
and has also been bothered by an injury in recent weeks. He has shown his
toughness in previous Comrades, but over the weekend was still in doubt
about running at all.
No one will be surprised if the first three runners are all foreigners,
because two frequent visitors to these shores have the credentials to finish
in the places behind Kotov. Oleg Kharitonov (RUS), ten years younger than
Kotov, will contest his sixth Comrades. After finishing twelfth in his debut
in 2001, he has crossed the line fourth, second, third and second. He wants
to win very much and this could be his year. His best up run time is the
5:34:43 he ran in 2002.
Jaroslaw Janicki (POL) has won before, the 1999 down run, but was also
second in the 2004 up run (2:55 behind Kotov) and although he prefers the
down run, he has the experience to be right there when the serious racing
usually starts on the murderous climb up Polly Shorts.
Other contenders are 2003 winner Fusi Nhlapo (tenth in his last up run in
2002), former Two Oceans champion Hlonepha Mphulanyane (seventh in 2004),
Johan Oosthuizen (ninth in 2004), Albe Geldenhuys (sixth in 2002), Elias
Mabane (ninth in 2005) and Sipho Maisela (16th in 2005).
In the women's race the whole of South Africa will again be behind Farwa
Mentoor, the quiet-spoken Cape Town mother of two who has been the top SA
finisher for the past four years: fourth in 2002, followed by eighth, third
and fourth. She came closest in 2004 when she gave the Russian Nurgalieva
twins a real fright and in fact beat Olesya to finish behind Yelena and
Marina Bychkova (RUS) in 6:18:28.
Mentoor has grown in stature and confidence every year and in this year's
Two Oceans was the first South African when finishing fifth behind Tatyana
Zhirkova (RUS), Yelena Nurgalieva, Simona Staicu (HUN) and Bychkova.
The consensus is, however, that the foreign onslaught will again be
overpowering. The Two Oceans also seemed to confirm that the twins are a
major power only when running together, because Yelena was beaten for the
first time after two successive wins when Olesya chose to run the Boston
Marathon instead. She will not be in the Comrades either, where Yelena won
in 2003 and 2004 (setting the up record of 6:11:15) but was only third last
year.
Zhirkova seems to be the clear favourite. Tough as nails, she scored a
commanding win last year, leaving Olesya in her dust by more than 11
minutes. Bychkova was then fifth behind Mentoor, followed by another
Russian, novice Marina Myshlyanova.
The only question about Zhirkova is whether she has recovered fully from her
quick time in the Two Oceans - the 3:36:19 that gave her a narrow victory is
the second fastest in the history of the race. Of course, the same goes for
Yelena, who was just 10 seconds behind her.
Bychkova has never won the Comrades, but has a record of consistency second
to none: starting with third in the 1999 down run, she has gained
consecutive positions of sixth, fourth, third, fifth, second and fifth. Her
6:14:14 in the 2004 up run was just 2:58 behind Yelena Nurgalieva.
With the experience gained last year, Myshlyanova will be even more of a
threat, and it will be interesting to see how another Russian, Lyudmila
Kalinina, performs in her first outing over the formidable hills of
Kwazulu-Natal province.
Apart from Mentoor, other South Africans who could challenge for a top ten
position and a gold medal are Yolande Maclean, who has yet to achieve her
tremendous potential in this race (she has three golds, but not a top five
placing so far), Grace de Oliveira (third, sixth and eighth in the last
three up runs), Lindsay van Aswegen (10th in 2005) and Riana van Niekerk
(16th in 2005).
Among the hundreds of overseas runners will also be Amby Burfoot, Executive
Editor of Runner's World Magazine and winner of the 1968 Boston Marathon.
Burfoot will not be the first Boston winner to run the Comrades - 1982
champion Alberto Salazar won the ultra at his first attempt in 1994.
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