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Jun-12-2008
Russians Will Be Tough to Beat at Comrades Marathon
by Riel Hauman
(c) Race Results Weekly, all rights reserved
Can the old man do it one more time? It seems very unlikely that Vladimir Kotov, now 50, can beat Leonid Shvetsov, who is eleven years younger, in Sundays 83rd Comrades ultramarathon between Durban and Pietermaritzburg, but Kotovs credentials for the up run are superb and he is as tough as nails.
Kotov (BLR) won the up run in 2000, 2002 and 2004, and his record of 5:25:33, set in the first of those, still stands. In last years down run, Shvetsov (RUS) obliterated Bruce Fordyces venerable 21-year-old record by more than three minutes in what many considered as the greatest ultradistance performance of all time. However, without denying his talents, he will find the up run a different race altogether.
The distance of the 2008 race is 86.94 km. At the end of last week, the entry total was 11,140 with a few last-minute queries still to be sorted out, according to the Comrades Marathon Association (CMA) office. The up run traditionally attracts a smaller field than the down run.
There is little doubt that the tall, strongly muscled Shvetsov will be going for Kotovs record. The last man to hold both records was Fordyce, until 1998. That year the first of his records went when another Russian, Dmitri Grishine, recorded 5:26:25 for the up run.
Last year, Shvetsov ran an aggressive race, taking control of the proceedings soon after the halfway mark and running away from his rivals. He finished in a stunning 5:20:49 and declared that it had been his intention to run under 5:24 and thus take home the large incentive bonuses on offer, including 100 ounces of gold.
Shvetsov has since been embroiled in a dispute with the CMA and mining company Harmony Gold, the sponsors of last years incentives for course records. Asked about the current situation, Comrades Marathon General Manager Gary Boshoff explained: Last year, Harmony Gold offered 100 ounces of gold as an incentive. Due to confusion between [Shvetsov] and the sponsor, this was not paid to Leonid until earlier this year, but that matter has now been resolved. This year, the incentive for the up record is a 50-ounce gold statuette, offered by new sponsor Gold Fields. At the current gold price and at the existing exchange rate, this incentive is worth more than R320,000 [USD 41,600]. If you add in the first prize of R220,000 [USD 28,600], plus the various incentives offered by clubs and shoe sponsors, you have a substantial reward for breaking the record, certainly the biggest in the world of ultra-marathon running.
Shvetsov does not train in South Africa, which makes it difficult to assess his fitness. Earlier this year he placed 16th in the Hong Kong Marathon in a slowish 2:25:49, but it is certain that he will not attempt the Comrades if he was not at least as fit as last year. If he can handle the hills, especially the two murderous ones at the end, Little Pollys and Big Pollys, then his speed will probably be too much for his rivals.
After his three successive wins, Kotov could not quite recapture the same form and in the last up run was third behind Oleg Kharitonov and Brian Zondi. He has shown some good form in short races earlier this year, including a half marathon in 74:06 at altitude. He has avoided the marathon distance, but had an easy win in the masters (50+) category in the Old Mutual Two Oceans ultra- marathon, clocking 3:30:40 and missing the course record by exactly a minute. Kotov, who lives permanently in South Africa but has not received citizenship, may be over his best now, but one thing is certain: if he is healthy and has a good day, he will be there when the real racing starts in the second half.
Two other Russians could challenge Shvetsov and the top South Africans. Kharitonov, who was third in last years World 100 km Championships (in 6:30:22), is the defending champion and will not hand over his title on a plate to anyone. Although his time of 5:35:19 in 2006 was the slowest winning time since Alberto Salazar clocked 5:38:39 in 1994, Kharitonov has a remarkably consistent record in the race after finishing twelfth in his 2001 debut: he has placed fourth, second, third, second, first and sixth. Grigoriy Murzin was second last year and although he was trounced by almost 10 minutes by Shvetsov, he should fare better on the up run (he was fourth in 2006, a half minute behind Kotov). In addition to his good Comrades performance in 2007, he won the Pedestres Internacionales de Cantabria 100 km and was second in the Swis Alpine Marathon.
Other major foreign challengers are Mikhail Kokorev (RUS), Magnus Michelsson (AUS, 16th two years ago), former winner Jaroslaw Janicki (POL) and three from neighbouring countries: Stephen Muzhingi (ZIM), Paul Mhizha (ZIM) and Leboka Noto (LES). Noto should place highest of these contenders he was tenth in the last up run and fifth in 2007, while he also won the Long Tom
56 km ultramarathon last year. In the Two Oceans he was 24th. Muzhingi was eighth in the Cape Town ultra. Who are the best South Africans?
While South Africans have fared well in the down run, it has been sixteen years since a local runner won the up run. In 1992, a little-known mineworker, Jetman Msutu, received the title by default when Charl Mattheus was disqualified for failing a drug test in one of the most controversial races of the modern Comrades era. Many experts believe South Africans are psyched out by the Russian onslaught, yet there are local runners who have the ability to win.
If Zondi has learned anything from his tactical blunder in 2006 when his impetuous charge after cresting Little Pollys probably cost him the victory, he could finish in the top three again. He had an easy Two Oceans (where he has won four golds). Most likely, however, the top local finishers will come from Lucas Nonyana, Mncedisi Mkhize, Peter Muthubi, Johan Oosthuizen, Joseph Ikaneng, and former winners (albeit on the down run) Sipho Ngomane and Fusi Nhlapo.
Nonyana and Mkhize may be the best among these runners and if everything goes well could finish in the top five. In his 2003 debut Comrades, Nonyana was the first athlete who was pulled off the road at the halfway mark for not beating the cut-off time there. But he did not allow that to stop him, showing the determination that made him walk 9 km to school and back every day as a child, and the next year finished 20th. In 2006 he was 14th and last year won a coveted gold medal with his ninth position. Nonyana has said he wants to win the race for his country and his wife, Theresa, and two sons, Musa (2) and Philani (9). I really feel I am ready to do it. This is a domestic race and it's important that it is won by a South African. And I want to be that person.
Mkhize was the top South African finisher last year when he placed third behind Shvetsov and Murzin and has been improving steadily. He runs well tactically and has had good preparation, including a 14th place in the Two Oceans.
Ngomane has expressed his confidence. On the last up run my tactics were wrong and I went out too hard. This year I am in the best shape of my life.
I know people say I can only run downhill, but this year things will be different, he said.
NURGALIEVA TWINS SET TO DOMINATE WOMENS
If it is fairly certain that the mens winner will be a Russian, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that the womens champion will be a Russian. The question is: Will it be Olesya or Yelena?
As a unit the Nurgalieva twins have shown themselves to be almost unbeatable in South African ultras. One only has to look at their phenomenal record in the Comrades and Two Oceans. Taking them together, in their 18 appearances in the two races, they have amassed seven firsts, seven seconds, two thirds and two fourths. It has only twice happened that they were both beaten in the same race: the 2005 Comrades (by Tatyana Zhirkova) and the 2007 Two Oceans (by Madina Biktagirova and Lilia Zadzhak).
In the previous up run Yelena set a brilliant new record of 6:09:24, with Olesya absent, while last year Olesya beat her sister by 29 seconds in
6:10:11 for her only victory so far. Olesya also took the 2008 Two Oceans, beating her sister by 32 seconds in 3:34:53. Yelena has three Comrades victories.
Zhirkova (RUS) and Marina Myshlyanova (RUS) seem to be the only two runners who can upset the twins applecart. Myshlyanova was fifth in both 2006 and 2007, while Zhirkova was third in the previous up run. The down run seems to suit Zhirkova better she won in 2005 and Myshlyanova is quite capable of springing a surprise this year.
There could be a surprise among the South Africans, too not in beating the formidable Russians, but in who is going to be the first local runner. Farwa Mentoor has been unbeatable for the past six years an incredible achievement in itself although in the past two years she has not come close to her 2004 brilliance again. She has also been the top South African in the 2006 and 2007 Two Oceans, but this year she was soundly beaten by Riana van Niekerk, as well as by Carol Mercer, running a rather slow time.
It could be that she did that on purpose with an eye on the Comrades.
Van Niekerk ran a superb Two Oceans, finishing fifth in 3:53:09, but she tends to over-race and this could be her undoing as it has in the past.
Apart from the Two Oceans, she has won the Jackie Mekler 50 km, as well as the Pretoria and PetroSA marathons, and was second in the SA Marathon
(2:45:05) this year. In the last up run she was eighth (third South African).
Van Niekerk has a good chance of beating Mentoor, while Mercer, Grace de Oliveira and Davera Magson will probably not be far behind. But with four more talented Russians Marina Bychkova (second in the last up run), Elvira Kolpakova, Tatiana Titova and Alena Vinitskaya in the field apart from the four already mentioned, as well as the seemingly ageless Maria Bak, there may not be that many gold medals left.
In a decision that is turning out to be as controversial as the one to run the race on a Sunday, the CMA has decided that runners may not carry or drag fellow-competitors who are in physical trouble in the final stages of the race. This has become a feature of the Comrades in recent years, with stronger athletes often carrying exhausted competitors whose legs refuse to support them any longer over the last few metres. Many runners feel this decision will harm the spirit of the race, which is borne out by its name, but race organisers denied this.
The CMA has taken this step because two runners died last year after being helped across the line, and it feels competitors could get quicker medical attention if they stay where they collapse and can be attended to immediately. In a statement Race Director Renée Jordaan said an emergency resuscitation unit will be stationed right on the finish line, while medical marshals will be deployed on the route. Their role will be to identify and respond to potential medical emergencies.
With regard to assistance from fellow competitors, from this year forward any runner who is unable to move forward under their own power (i.e. being
carried) will not be permitted to continue, so that immediate medical attention can be called for. Runners will not be prevented from encouraging, supporting and assisting each other and sharing the great Comrades experience and ethos for which the event is famous, she said. If they need a shoulder to lean on, assistance with a cramp or a blistered foot, it is part of the Comrades tradition to help one another. Ideally though, we want them to finish under their own steam, and in instances in which runners are completely incapable of moving by themselves, we will not permit physical assistance.
Prize money for the first man and woman is R220,000 (USD 28,600), with second place half of that. The first ten men and women receive gold medals, those from position 11 to sub-6 hours Wally Hayward medals, from 6 hours to sub-7:30 silver, from 7:30 to sub-9 hours Bill Rowan, from 9 hours to sub-11 hours bronze, and from 11 hours to sub-12 hours Vic Clapham medals. The first SA citizen (man and woman) will win a 25-ounce gold statuette.
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