Improvement After Training Calculator

Improvement-After-Training Calculator
Want to know how much your marathon time should improve if you train well? Select your gender, your planned training cycle effort and number of training cycles, and press the Calculate button!

Here are the behind-the-scenes assumptions and choices:

Training Cycle Effort
Average Effort: This effort is slightly more than your previous marathon training, whether that means slightly more volume, frequency, or dedication to the details...
Moderate Effort: You want to improve, but still have a life. So frequency is likely up one additional run/week, volume is up 10-20%, and you are bit more careful with your diet.
High Effort: Everything else is secondary, you might even run twice a day from time to time. Frequency is up an additional 2-4 runs/week, volume is up 20-50%, you live on the foam roller and save the beer for after your race.

Number of Training Cycles
A Training Cycle is a 3-6 month training period that is advancing your fitness level from the previous cycle.
Note that the first cycle results in the highest improvement given the runner is going from minimal and basic training to now an advanced customized training plan designed by a professional running coach. The 2nd and subsequent cycles result in lower incremental improvement given the changes and advances in training are now more subtle.

Calculation Methodology
Rate of improvement (ROI) calculation: There is no hard science on this as there are of course many variables that come into play. However, assuming that the previous training is minimal and basic, future training is more advanced and progressive, the runner stays injury-free, and based on the average improvement of runners being guided by a professional running coach, this calculator assumes that for each effort level and each training cycle the marathon time should be reduced by approximately...
Male Runners ROI: 0.5% for sub 2:20, 1% for times 2:20-3:00, 1.25% for 3:00-3:30, 1.5% for 3:30-4:10, 2% for 4:10-6:00
This means for a 3:45:00 male marathoner, with 3 cycles of training at a High effort, the time should come down by slightly less than 11.5%** - to 3:20:01.
Female Runners ROI: 0.2% for sub 2:25, 0.5% for times 2:25-3:00, 0.75% for 3:00-3:30, 1% for 3:30-4:10, 1.5% for 4:10-6:00*
This means for a 3:45:00 female marathoner, with 3 cycles of training at a High effort, the time should come down by 8%** - to 3:27:26.
*Note that the rate of improvement for women runners is slightly less due to the general average physiological differences between genders.
**Note that the first cycle results in the highest improvement [ROI x (3 levels of effort + 1 cycle)]. The 2nd and subsequent cycles result in less improvement [ROI x (1 effort level + 1 cycle)].